A neighbouring coup?

I awoke this morning to news that Lansana Conte, the aged and ailing Guinean president, was dead.

On the drive to work an hour later, a BBC news update came across the radio in my taxi stating that a military leader had proclaimed over state TV and radio that the Guinean government and constitution had been dissolved in an apparent coup d'etat.

My day from that point on has been largely occupied in trying to figure out what this would all mean, for both Guinea and Sierra Leone, Guinea's neighbour to the south. Stymied until quite recently by continual inaccess to the Internet, my curiosities were fed largely by the anecdotal updates of my friends here.

Our guard, Shaka, told me he saw reports on CNN yesterday that Conte had made two public appearances before dying at 5 a.m. Sheik, my Kalleone colleague, informed me, in direct opposition to Shaka's claims, that he heard about Conte's death yesterday. Despite residing in the neighbouring country, I couldn't help but think that my friends back home were probably having an easier time following the story.

Now, as the day winds to a close, I've been able to peruse a host of online updates courtesy of Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times, and The Globe and Mail. Here's what I've been able to piece together:

Mr. [Aboubacar] Sompare [President of the National Assembly] had announced Conte had died on Monday evening, and asked the country's Supreme Court to name him president in line with the constitution, in order to organize presidential elections within 60 days.

Conte seized power militarily in 1984, following the death of Ahmed Sekou Toure, Guinea's first president. Under international pressure for democratization, Conte formed a political party and won elections in 1993, 1998 and 2003, though none were regarded as free and fair by the international community.

His 24-year regime relied on military backing to quell dissent and generally invited accusations of corruption, while Guinean people were crippled by poverty. Recent months had seen incidences of violence in response to the country's issues:

Last month, frustrated youths took to the crumbling streets of Conakry for three successive days, throwing stones and setting tires on fire in escalating protests over high gas prices. Witnesses said at least one person was killed when government troops shot at demonstrators. (NY Times)

At the time of his death, Conte was thought to be about 74 years old, though sources differ on their willingness to report his age as fact or merely state that he was in his 70s. They also differ on how speculative they're willing to get on the cause of the death, this story from the BBC being the most specific:

The cause of his death is unknown, but Mr. Conte, 74, was a chain-smoker and diabetic who is also believed to have suffered from leukemia. Forty days of national mourning have been declared.

Just hours after Conte's death was announced, a military group identifying itself as the National Council for Democracy took to state-run TV and radio to announce its takeover of the country:

"The government is dissolved. The institutions of the republic are dissolved. ... From this moment on, the council is taking charge of the destiny of the Guinean people," said the coup leader, who identified himself as Capt. Moussa [Dadis] Camara. (The Globe and Mail)

However, as discussions were being held between soldiers and officers who supported a coup and those who wanted to remain loyal to constitutional procedure, Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Souare asserted that the government remained in power as they should, and Guinea's armed forces chief, General Diarra Camara, suggested that those who supported a military coup were in the minority. In addition ...

Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Souare called on the army to secure the nation's borders, while Mr. Sompare directed the country's courts to apply the law. The two announcements, coupled by the presence of the head of the army, appeared to be an effort to signal the government intended a peaceful transition.

Meanwhile, the United States have urged Guinea to pursue democratic rule, while the European Union, led by Guinea’s former French colonizers, have denounced any coup attempts.

The African Union, the continent’s largest representative body comprised of 53 members, has called for an urgent meeting to address the situation, to be held in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa as early as tomorrow morning. ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) joined the chorus of coup denunciations.

Personally, I’m optimistic that Guinea can manage this transition without blood in the streets. The fact that the army’s highest ranking official is supporting the government is a good sign, and all reports indicate that Conakry, the Guinean capital, has remained calm.

That being said, I will be surprised if a free and fair election takes place and Guinea comes out of this as a stable democratic nation, at least in the next six months.

Earlier today, sitting in Bliss Patisserie with Bryna, Kevin and Patrick as we speculated wildly on the basis of a few sparse details, we all admitted that one of the first thoughts we’d had was whether we should start looking into ways to get into Guinea.

With the call for border closings mentioned above, I have serious doubts about whether we’d be able to get in. Still, I found our gut reactions amusingly emblematic of the journalistic drive to head into, rather than out of, potentially unstable situations.

Later in the day, Craig and I couldn’t help but discuss the potentially career-making stories that we could tell, depending on how the situation develops, if we grabbed a couple of local fixers (journalists to help with logistics and translation) and made our way to Conakry.

That said, I maintain my previous doubts about whether I would have what it takes to be a foreign correspondent, I have no intentions of going to Guinea at this point and, if I did, it would not be until we had reasonable assurance that the situation was stable.

Even so, I will retain an acute interest in watching how this situation develops, as it could have potentially enormous implications for Sierra Leone. One article I read cautioned about the worst-case scenario:

Guinea's neighbours - Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast - are enjoying relative stability after years of conflict and there are fears any unrest there [in Guinea] could spread and embroil the sub-region in fighting once more.

Frankly, I have great difficulty foreseeing the Guinea situation reigniting instability in Sierra Leone, but admit there could be some less ghastly ripple effects felt here depending how the coming days play out.

As partners in the Mano River Union, Guinea and Sierra Leone are closely linked states. They share a border and, if any substantial conflict were to arise in Guinea, a wave of refugees would likely attempt to cross the 652 km of border between the two countries – with potentially tragic implications for Sierra Leone, a country already woefully unable to provide for its own citizens.

In addition, there is the interesting circumstance of one of the provinces in the north of Sierra Leone, an area that has been disputed since Sierra Leone’s own civil conflict. I haven’t had a chance to check into his claims yet, but Sheik says that of the Guineans who poured over the border to help curb the violence during the civil war, some have never left what he classified as explicitly Sierra Leonean land.

All in all, the world will likely turn its attention away in a couple days when it becomes clear that nothing disastrous is going to happen. But in the meantime, it has sure given a few young journalists something to talk about.

Editor's note: Since this will be my last post for a couple days, let me take the opportunity to wish a very Merry Christmas to you and yours.